Betting in the blood

Summer break

2008-04-23T19:25:00.003+01:00

Due in ever increasing time restraints and a rapidly mobile 9 month old daughter, I've decided to stop updating BITB (Betting in the Blood) until the start of next season at the earliest.

It's sad to sign off on a losing month, but I hope everyone who has followed me in the past 6 months has enjoyed the journey. It's not over and I'll continue to bet, but at the moment I just can't justify the time needed to make the blog as good as I'd like.

Goodbye for now readers and stay lucky.

Bet 85: £100 DONCASTER to beat Leyton Orient @ Evens

2008-04-21T20:31:00.002+01:00

Running balance: £1,780.95

Post script: Not the fairy tale ending I had envisaged. Doncaster only managed a 1-1 draw and I'm back where I started on Friday morning. Shame really, as I had thought this was a standout bet, Orient has seemed to have given up for the season and Doncaster still had a chance for 2nd and automatic promotion.

Remarkably, this was the first ever game I had selected at Evens.

Bet 84: £100 LEWES to beat Dorchester @ 3/10

2008-04-19T09:06:00.005+01:00

Am actually going to this game today (ok, I'll admit this had a small part in the decision..........) and a win today and Lewes will win the Blue Square South and promotion to the Conference proper.

Dorchester also need a win, anything else and they are relegated. This should play into Lewes' hands, and I can see a comfortable win. Gone with Sporting Bet, the only outfit who were better than 1/4.

Going to have one further bet today, but I'll place this via Betfair Mobile after I've read the Racing Post on the train.

Running balance: £1,880.95

Post script: Well, I can tell you that the 2-0 final scoreline was no way as easy as it sounds. The first half was absoletly dreadful, Lewes are no where near the standard of the Blue Square Premier, and it was only because Dorchester was even more dire that they got anything out of the game. So two from two Saturday, now for that third game I discussed.........

Bet 83: £100 ARSENAL to beat Reading @ 4/11

2008-04-19T08:56:00.004+01:00

Arsenal are due to give someone a real kicking, and I fear it will be Reading this afternoon. Although the title has gone and they are now out of Europe, Arsenal have been playing well and were very unlucky not to beat United last weekend.

Gone with Paddy Power for the first time today, hoping for the luck of the Irish!!

Running balance: £1,850.59

Post script: As expected, Arsenal ran out very comfortable winners. A score line of 4 or 5-nil would probably have been more of a fair reflection.

Bet 82: £100 BURTON to draw or beat Stevenage @ 4/11

2008-04-18T21:59:00.003+01:00

Running balance: £1,814.59

Post script: Completed the Monolopy challenge in London today, I'm sure we've done it in a record time. Anyway, decided to lay Stevenage in this evenings game as they are hopelessly out of form, yet I wasn't sure of Burton's attacking intent, a draw wouldn't have been a bad result for them.

In the end Burton eased to a 3-0 win, so that's really helped my monthly winning average.

Bet 81: £100 CHELSEA to beat Everton @ 23/20

2008-04-17T21:41:00.007+01:00

Firstly, I apologise for again posting a main bet after the event. It's a strange thing but I have no confidence at the moment and it seems everything I put up here before kick-off goes pear shaped. I can guarantee everyone who reads this blog, that integrity for me is key to everything I do. I have and will continue to post losing bets if they happen (I think the last one was way back on Bet 27). Again, I placed this wager with Betfair. I like just asking for the odds in the morning and hoping to get matched at some point during the day.

Running balance: £1,779.44

Post script: A huge bet in terms of the months progress, a win has seen my losses reduce to only a touch over £100, a very recoverable situation. A defeat and I'm over £300 down and buried.

I thought Chelsea controlled the first half and deservedly took the lead just before half time. Second half Chelsea were again content to sit on the 1-0 lead, and in the end I turned off the TV and viewed the game via the fast forward facility on Sky Plus.

Bet 80: £100 WEYMOUTH to beat Droyslden @ 4/7

2008-04-16T20:30:00.003+01:00

Running balance: £1,663.54

Post script: Good bounce back from the Chelski disaster, although, as per normal this month, it was very tight at 2-1. This month it seems to be one step forward and then two back, but I'm really hopeful that I can still turn a profit. Although I'm really wanting to back anything at all at the moment, today I found nothing that I could classify as easy, and therefore have passed.

Bet 78: £100 CHELSEA to beat Wigan @ 1/4

2008-04-13T22:09:00.004+01:00

I can't see Chelski slipping up here (they may struggle away to Everton on Thursday, but that's another matter), although I've been burnt by Wigan before (Bet 30). Went with Boyle Sports for this one, the only bookie still offering the 1/4 price. I wonder how long that will last? (As I write this I see Boyle Sport have now gone 1/5, so they must have taken enough damage at 1/4).

A good friend of mine is returning to the UK tomorrow from Australia, and I'm off for a curry and a few pints, so I'll have to get score updates via the 'net on my mobile phone me thinks.

Running balance: £1,608.41

Post script: I can take no positives from this game at all, aside from the fact that Manchester United should win the Premier League now and win me back a little money.

Bet 77: £100 MAN UTD to win Premier League '07/'08 @ 19/50

2008-04-13T22:02:00.003+01:00

My first long term (well, there's not really that long left this season, but never mind) wager was placed prior to United's win against Arsenal with Australian firm Centrebet. This price is now available at 2/11.

I'll place this into the monthly P&L of the month in which the bet is settled (more likely to be May).

Weekend review; learning from school boy errors

2008-04-13T19:16:00.004+01:00

Running balance: £1,708.41

Right, I never like dissecting a losing session, let alone when it includes my worst ever daily loss. Well, as I write this, I'm feeling slightly lucky. Even though from 5 settled bets this weekend, I won 2 and lost 3 and am down £155.13. That is because Manchester Utd pulled off one of the biggest smash and grab performances I've seen this season against Arsenal, and instead of potentially being down £338.46 over the two days, I'm only down the aforementioned £155 and change. That result also saved me from the embarrassment of losing 3 consecutive £100 bets for the first time. Hat's off Arsenal, you gave a remarkable display despite being cruelly defeated in the week. You have to remember that a lot of the pre-season talk was of Spurs taking Arsenal's "Big 4" spot, and it being the end of an era with Henry departing to Spain. If Arsenal's notoriously tight board can find it in themselves to spend on one or two key players in the summer, I think they can challenge more seriously next year.

The real error of this weekend was obviously selecting 5 games yesterday, and not just the one as I usually do. It's gone against all the success I've had in the last couple of months and I quickly realised this was an error as soon as the games kicked off yesterday. Over the next couple of months, I'm going back to picking the one, strongest bet every day.

Ironically, if I had put this into place yesterday, I would have been ok, as the Palace v Scunthorpe game was the one I had felt most confident with (that's an honest admission, Neil Warnock knows how to get out of this division).

Looking at the three games I lost, there was two distinct errors I made:

1. With the Hull City and Southend selections, I made the mistake of putting too much emphasis on the home teams form only. Both these teams had been on fire of recent and both had moved into the play-offs after being in mid-table for most of the season. However both were playing teams who were showing a good bit of form themselves in QPR and Northampton. But I had dismissed this as they were both also in a position where they had nothing to play for, in regards to either promotion or relegation. Sadly it seems that both the home teams suffered with end of season nerves, whilst the away teams had creative license, as they were free from such pressure.

I realised this twenty minutes into Soccer Saturday, when both Hull and Southend were 0-1 down and struggling. Still, its good to pick this up now, as over the course of the next couple of months, this will be a key ingredient of many of the games I look at.

2. The Cambridge defeat was arguably down to a little bit of the above, with Stafford already down and little to play for. The key difference was that Stafford had lost 5 or 6 in a row and were in no form at all. The main error I made here was I made too much of Stafford's lack of form, and not enough on how Cambridge had been playing. If I had, I would have seen that, aside from their last 2 games, Cambridge had only got 1 point from a previous 12, and had lost recently to the woeful Farsley Celtic.

Having said that, I still think that Cambridge should have comfortably won this, so I wasn't surprised about Cambridge manager Jimmy Quinn stating after the game that he was disgusted with such an abject performance.

So, there we have it. Despite all the above and the three figure loss, I still think I have enough time to turn this around in the remainder of the month, so let's go onwards and upwards. Less greed, more research and focus on one selection a day.

Bet 74: £100 MAN UTD to beat Arsenal @ 5/6

2008-04-13T10:15:00.002+01:00

This bet replaces the original Bet 74, which was postponed yesterday. I will do a review of yesterday's disaster a bit later, when I have a bit more time.

Today's bet has gone with William Hill, and I fully expect a well rested Utd to blow away a spent Arsenal team.

Bet 76: £100 SOUTHEND to beat Northampton @ 3/4

2008-04-11T22:16:00.003+01:00

Final Saturday selection see me take on Southend, who have really been motoring in the last few months. They will be at full strength and are great value to beat a Northampton team who are just too far off to think about the play-offs. Gone with Sporting Bet for this bet, one of five bookies whom I remain unbeaten with.

So five games in all tomorrow, depending on who wins, I may need 4 for a profit, I may need 3. Should be an exciting Soccer Saturday!!

Bet 75: £100 CAMBRIDGE UTD to beat Stafford @ 2/7

2008-04-11T21:06:00.002+01:00

Added to my existing 3 selections for Saturday with what I consider an extremely probable home win in the Blue Square Premier. Cambridge are currently in the play-off positions and face a Stafford team already relegated.

Despite my recent defeat using Skybet for the unsuccessful Bet 66, I'm going back for some more of the same to try and get some redemption.

Bet 74: £100 AIRDRIE to beat Cowdenbeath @ 8/13

2008-04-10T19:52:00.002+01:00

Another strange price here, Airdrie are very strong at the moment, having just turned over newly crowned champions Ross County in mid-week. Cowdenbeath are second from bottom and have never beaten Airdrie before.

Bet 365 also had the best odds for this game, 8/13, I expect that to come in before kick-off.

Bet 73: £100 CRYSTAL PALACE to beat Scunthorpe @ 8/13

2008-04-10T19:48:00.002+01:00

Palace hang onto the last play-off place by the skin of their teeth, but they impressed me a lot in their 2-1 away win at Stoke on Monday. Scunthorpe are all but relegated after starting the season with just promise.

8/13 was available at Bet 365 and I've gone with this outfit for the first time in this blog.

Bet 72: £100 HULL CITY to beat QPR at 4/5

2008-04-10T19:40:00.002+01:00

First of three bets for Saturday I've put on early to ensure I get the best prices. I will 2 out of the 3 to come in to make a small profit, but I'm very confident on each of them coming in.

Hull City have been on fire in the Championship in the last couple of months, especially at home, where they have beaten Watford and Southampton by a combined score of 8-0 in their last two games at the KC. QPR, whilst improved in the last few months, should be outgunned here.

Got 4/5 with William Hill for this one.

Other betting blog developments

2008-04-09T19:56:00.002+01:00

Its sad to have to report that a couple of my favourite blogs seem to have taken noticeable set backs in the last week or so.

The Gambler lost a large and unspecified amount on the US horses (I can't understand why anyone touches these personally, but the Gambler always seemed to do OK at it prior to this latest disaster) and has packed in the whole gambling business. In its place, he has decided to write his memoirs, which are very readable. I would recommend you take a look. He seems to have gone back with gambling as of last night, you can never keep a good man down.

The Betfair Loser also seems to have lost a packet and has taken a break. Despite the name, the Betfair Loser seemed to do quite well, I guess any gambler is only a few bad breaks away from ruin. I do hope that I can use the blogging forum to ensure that I try to keep a level head, its never nice to write about the bad times, although I find its a good way to learn quickly.

Bet 71: £100 STOCKPORT to beat Mansfield @ 4/6

2008-04-09T19:41:00.004+01:00

Stockport have been on fire in League 2 and are now only 3 points off an automatic promotion spot. With back to back games against MK Dons and Peterbrough, they will want to secure as many points as possible in the last few games to avoid a repeat of last season, where they missed out on a play-off spot on the last game.

Picked up a price of 1.69 on Betfair, since when it has come into 1.65. That's the sort of price move I'm comfortable with.

Running balance: £1,863.53

Post script: Well at 0-1 in the first half, I got a distinct sense of deja vu (is that how you spell that?) from the Farsley game last night, especially when Stockport levelled fairly quickly. One thing which flashed through my head at this point was that a defeat here would have left me in a very similar position to where I was after Suicidal Sunday back in February. Strangely enough this thought filled me with a biziarre sense of confidence. "I've been down and out before and got out of it, and I'm bloody well going to get out of it this month!"

In the end it was Stockport who got the winner, and as a result, I'm now only down £16 instead of the £180 abyss I was staring down. However I've been pissing up my £100 internet fund up the wall, so I'm really closer to a ton down to date. Let's hope for some more inspired selections at the weekend.

Bet 70: £100 FARSLEY CELTIC to beat Droylsden @ 4/6

2008-04-08T19:19:00.003+01:00

Celtic have just pulled away from the relegation zone following a superb away win at Torquay. They will want to consolidate this tonight against the league's bottom team who are winless away from home, before taking on more challenging fixtures later this month.

My only worry with this bet is that the 1.55 price on Betfair yesterday, was available at 1.7 this evening (which is the price I took). Does someone know something I don't?

Running balance: £1,797.98

Post script: Sadly, greed seems to have got the better of me yesterday. I was happy just to play the Chelsea game, which on its own would have put me back into profit. But no, I saw the price move on the Farsley game and jumped into that one as well. The Betfair "brain" is seldom wrong, and its seems the price move was a very good indicator that Farsley weren't as much of a cert as I had originally thought.

The game itself was very even, and indeed the price I took wasn't representing good value at all, hopefully a lesson learnt.

Bet 69: £100 CHELSEA to beat Fenerbahce @ 3/10

2008-04-08T19:01:00.003+01:00

Have to admit that I fancied about 6 bets tonight, with Chelsea, Southend, MK Dons, Morecambe, Stockport and Farsley Celtic all looking good. Gone for two in the end, Chelski should have the fire power to blow away a Fenerbahce team who are very strong at home but struggle on their travels.

Plus I'm sure there will be a Chelsea v Liverpool Mk III in the CL Semi's. Got 1.32 with Betfair for the Blues, which will return a touch over £30 after commission.

Bet 68: £100 EVERTON to beat Derby @ 1/4

2008-04-06T17:05:00.006+01:00

Placed this whilst out with the family via the phone, but as blog integrity is key to me, I enclose a screen shot of the P&L after an unimpressive 1-0 win. Everton have been given a sight of 4th again when Liverpool only could take one point against Arsenal, and I was certain Moyes would have gotten his boys up for it. Derby are, well, how can I put this. Shite.

Took 1.28 with Betfair, which returned £26.60.

Running balance: £1,867.32

Bet 67: £100 CARLISLE to beat Yeovil @ 8/13

2008-04-05T11:44:00.004+01:00

I was going to go for Northwich today, but a brand new goalie for the home team, and the fact that I was slow out of the blocks getting a good price, means I'm going to pass. I'm going back to Carlisle, who have an incredible home record and are challenging for automatic promotion.

Whilst Carlisle tasted defeat in their last game midweek week against Nottingham Forest, they were very unlucky; hitting the post twice, dominating the game and then seeing Forest score twice on the counter. With a full strength team to choose from, I can't see Carlisle slipping up again.

Got a great price of 1.64 with Betfair (now only available at 1.61), which works out for around 8/13 after commission. The best anyone else could do was 4/7.

Running balance: £1,840.72

Post script: There's an old footballing cliche that over the course of the season, luck will even itself out. Well, I've had it even out over the course of 3 days. On Thursday, Exeter virtually camped inside Droylsden's penalty area without success. And today, I have to admit, I got very lucky, when Carlisle came from behind to beat Yeovil 2-1 with a 91st minute winner.

That's 2 games now I've won through a lasp gasp winner (the other being Bet 44 back in early Feb).

Bet 66: £100 EXETER to beat Droylsden @ 2/7

2008-04-02T10:36:00.003+01:00

Exeter are just 3 points off a play-off spot and will be going all out for a win here. Whilst Droylsden have actually improved of late, they only played on Tuesday and face a long trip down to Devon.

Running balance: £1,779.92

Post script: Well, it had to end eventually, and yesterday's 1-1 draw saw my run of wins come to a screeching halt. Exeter had 30 shots in the game, so I don't think it was a poor choice, you sometimes have games where the opposition's goal can become unbreachable. Exeter's goal only came about from the penalty spot.

What was more annoying was the timing of it, right at the start of the month leaving me in a £100 hole. At the end of March, such a loss would have easily been swallowed up, almost without notice. Just got to stay focused, pick one game at a time, and take a long term view of it all.

£120.08 to go until I reach £2,000

2008-04-02T10:02:00.002+01:00

If I can manage to get to £2,000, I will be moving up to £200 a bet. This will be a big jump, and its a shame its come so close to the end of the football season. I never like betting in August as it's hard to see where the strength is, and who is actaully a team to consistently back / oppose. It mean's that I will probably have to go for the Premiership Big 4, who I think are always overpriced by fearful bookies. The real value is further down the leagues, where there is not too much media attention.

I'm not too sure whether it will alter my betting patterns, at the moment my average odds taken is 1/2, and that's something which I'm happy with. What will happen for sure is that there will be bigger swings, both up and down.

A new month, some new changes........

2008-04-02T09:37:00.002+01:00

On the back of a highly successful March, I've decided to make an all important permanent change to my betting system. Last month I tried using the internet for the first time in order to get the best odds available. My main worry when using the net was that I'd lose value of what I was betting with. This hasn't been a problem to date, and as well as ensuring I get the best return possible, I have also managed to benefit from some free bets. What's also been good is the time saving. It does take a lot out of your day picking up money, taking it to the bank and then placing your next bet. With the internet its a much quicker process, and with odd comparison websites, you know straight away where you're going to get the best return.

March '08 monthly review

2008-04-01T10:51:00.005+01:00

Profit for the month: £579.80
Profit to date: £879.92

Target for the month: £9.24
Performance against target for the month: +£570.56

Target to date: £40.04
Performance against target to date: +£839.88

Average odds staked for the month: 1/2
Average odds staked at to date: 1/2

Bets placed in the month: 10
Bets placed to date: 65

Average win per bet in month: £53.49
Average win per bet to date: £12.59

Winning % for the month: 100%
Winning % to date: 80%

Average winning margin for the month: 3.3
Average winning margin to date: 1.6

Internet based return for the month: £44.91
Internet based return to date: £61.49

March '08 monthly internet review

2008-04-01T10:14:00.005+01:00

Party Bets:

P&L for the period: (£50.00)
P&L to date: (£100.00)

Detailed results and review for Party Bets can be found here, as I mentioned Party Bets just isn't working for me so I'm going to put the £100 monthly fund soley into Betfair.

Betfair:

P&L for the period: £94.91
P&L to date: £161.49

Although, the profit actually shows £176.25, you need to take off the £38.95 from main system Bet 57 and £42.75 from Bet 59, leaving me with an internet profit of £94.55. I think there's some rounding problems because I actually withdrew £94.91 from the account at the end of the month.

Total P&L for the period: £44.91
Total P&L to date: £61.49

Bet 65: £100 CHELSEA to beat Middlesbrough @ 9/25

2008-03-29T19:16:00.003Z

Actually placed this bet earlier this week to ensure I got a good price, and as I suspected, this price has now gone. Used an Australian outfit called Centrebet for this one, as a result got a free £20, which I've also put on Chelsea.

Whilst Boro got a very credible draw at Arsenal, I just can't see lightening striking twice, and Chelsea will not only want to close back the gap to Manchester Utd, but will also want to go into the CL Quarter Finals on a high.

Running balance: £1,835.01

Post script: A slightly fortunate 1-0 win (I think Boro hit the woodwork 4 times, although I didn't watch the game) means I will come out of March undefeated. There is plenty of action coming up in April, so I've got to hope for more of the same. My 16 game winning streak now has running odds of 462.22 to 1.

I'm dropping Party Bets

2008-03-29T07:39:00.003Z

Another month, another £50 loss with Party Bets. To remind everyone, I decided to put £50 each month into a Party Bets account and £50 into a Betfair account, so that I could gamble more leisurely, and without risking £100 a pop. I've done quite well with Betfair (up £60 odd last month, and up £30 to date this month), but I just can't reproduce it with Party Bets.

Therefore from next month, I'll deposit the full £100 into Betfair. Nice and simple, and I enjoy the whole betting exerience a lot more with Betfair (forum, ability to trade and you can bet at any stage in running).

Bet 64: £100 MANCHESTER UTD to beat Aston Villa @ 1/3

2008-03-28T20:08:00.003Z

I think the threat of Chelsea looming up behind the Red Devils will dig deep here, especially when they still have to travel to Stamford Bridge. Aston Villa's form seems to have gone out of the window, culminating in an embarrassing 0-1 home defeat to Sunderland last week.

I've taken the 1/3 odds with Boyle Sports, hopefully the luck of the Irish will continue as I'm 2 wins from 2 with them to date.

Running balance: £1,791.82

Post script: An easy 4-0 victory makes it 15 in a row at accumulated odds of 329/1. I realise that a run of this sort is going to be very, very rare, so I'm going to enjoy it whilst it lasts.

Bet 63: £100 GRAYS to beat Crawley @ 5/4

2008-03-28T19:59:00.003Z

I know, I know. It's quite shameful that I have chosen the team I support to lose to the tune of £100. However, having played 2 games already this week (Monday and Thursday), the 2nd of which was an awful 0-4 reserve at home to Kidderminster, the odds here are too good to miss out on. Many fellow fans are calling it the worst performance in living memory. Crawley have a paper thin squad, and the team seem to have lost any desire that was previously apparent.

The main reason why I've placed this and the two following bets now, is that I fully expect the odds to come in. Bet 63 has gone with Sky Bet, the first time I've used them on the blog. God knows what my reactions will be when watching Soccer Saturday tomorrow.

Running balance: £1,758.48

Post script: Don't feel good about it, but Grays won 2-1 with 2 penalties and I won £125. Let's move on.

Three bets left in March..............

2008-03-25T20:31:00.003Z

I think I've got three more £100 bets left for the remainder of March, one of which will almost definetly be Chelski to beat Boro. Ideas welcome for the remaining two....

Classic Tunes No 20: Schiller - Glockenspiel

2008-03-24T21:43:00.001Z

Bet 62: £100 AFC HORNCHURCH to beat Leyton @ 1/5

2008-03-23T20:53:00.003Z

With over £300 profit achieved this month, my main aim at the moment is bank preservation rather than a slightly riskier, higher returning strategy. Therefore I've gone down the leagues a little bit to try and guarantee a win, with AFC Hornchurch playing an already relegated Leyton in the glamorous Ryman Premier League.

One thing I have been trying to do recently is select teams who have real motivation to secure the 3 points, and this is the case for AFC Hornchurch who are looking to secure a play-off place having been promoted last year from the Essex County League. Those of you who follow non-league football (as a follower of Crawley Town, I place myself in this category) will know AFC Hornchurch are a re-birth of the doomed Hornchurch team that tried to buy their way to success a few years ago, only to see the money tap turned off.

This bet has been placed via Sporting Bet again, and there are actually seven firms covering the Ryman games tomorrow. This is a massive rise from a couple of years ago and its good to see that bookies provide prices this far down the footballing pyramid, even though I'm sure they make relatively little money.

Running balance: £1,633.48

Post script: 9-0, I don't think I need anything further........

Bet 61: £100 BRECHIN to beat Berwick @ 9/20

2008-03-22T08:43:00.003Z

Delving into the Scottish lower leagues for Saturdays game. Brechin still have an outside chance of a play-off place, whilst Berwick have only failed to not lose two of their 15 away games to date.

Sporting Bet were offering slightly better odds than the rest of the bookies for this game (9/20 against 4/9), so this is the first time in this blog that I will have gone with them.

Running balance: £1,613.48

Post script: 2nd successive Saturday when my selection has won 5-0. A late goal elsewhere means that Berwick stay up mathematically, but the writing is sadly on the wall for this bunch of losers (ironically, like Gretna, Berwick are actually in England).

I was going to follow up with a bet on Everton this evening, but why risk it? I'll probably just have a tenner on them via Betfair. My 12 game winning streak has now had accumulative odds of 90 to 1, hopefully my small band of readers have gone with a few of them, although I realise that I do place my selections up quite late.

Bet 60: £100 STOCKPORT to beat Maccelsfield @ 4/6

2008-03-21T19:18:00.005Z

Stockport are the form team of League 2, and whilst most of their form is on the road, they have been solid at home as well. They still have a reasonable chance of automatic promotion, so they should still be very interested in securing all 3 points. Tonight's bet has gone with William Hill, the first time I've used the blogs original bookies since Bet 54.

Running balance: £1,568.48

Post script: Another victory, 2-0 this time. That's now 11 in a row at cumulative odds of 64 to 1. Hopefully I can pull another game out of the Saturday program tomorrow.

Bet 59: £100 GRAYS to beat Droylsden @ 4/9

2008-03-20T19:24:00.003Z

Back to business with my favourite whipping boys Droylsden. With their best striker out (Steve Daly), Droylsden should struggle to get anything from this game. Am suffering from a little jet lag so will probably just record the game and watch it tomorrow morning.

Running balance: £1,501.82

Post script: A 3-1 victory by Grays tonight has now seen me win my 10th consectutive £100 bet (accumlative odds of about 37-1). Droylsden actually made a game of it, going in level at half time and only losing to two relatively late goals. Still, they have been a good source of income for me this year (£150+) and the bookies must have been taking beating after beating. Shame.

The fund has now moved over £1,500, and I'm £200 to the good this month without my internet winnings (about £60 to date). Looking forward to the weekend games already.

Bet 58: £100 HULL CITY to beat Southampton @ 4/5

2008-03-14T20:59:00.003Z

Hull have been one of the form teams of the Championship in recent months. So much so that they now sit in one of the play-off berths. That should mean a bumper crowd at the KC Stadium, where Hull have pretty strong and will be looking to take maximum points. Southampton have struggled on the road of late, and Hull will be looking to gain revenge for a 4-0 mauling they took from the Saints earlier this season.

A strange bet some of you may think, as there are certainly more banker type games out there, but I'm taking my £100 free bet from Boyle Sports which I received from Bet 56. Therefore I've opted for a game where the potential returns are higher, without any of the risk of defeat.

Running balance: £1,459.07

Post script: A very comfortable 5-0 win now makes it 9 straight wins for me and puts the fund into the £1,400's for the very first time. Have a few days in the US for work from tomorrow, so there probably will be no further bets until next weekend.

A320 crosswind approach

2008-03-12T22:52:00.001Z

Now this is a scary approach.......

Bet 57: £100 CARLISLE to beat Luton @ 2/5

2008-03-11T19:04:00.004Z

Luton had an awful away record BEFORE they went into administration and lost several of their best players. Carlisle on the other hand have been very strong at home and being only 1 point off an automatic promotion spot, I can not see them letting up here. Gone with Betfair @ 1.41.

Running balance: £1,379.07

Post script: Slightly nervy 2-1 victory, but it pushes me to my 8th straight main £100 bet victory. Just realised that this is actually the longest run I've had since this all began. Will see if there's anything worthy tomorrow (Chelsea at 1/10 is a joke, especially since they have just been beaten by Barnsley), but may well wait until the weekend. Had a couple of beers during the games tonight to calm my nerves, but I have now made it past my previous highest blog running total.

Cheltenham is going well with Robert "Chocolate" Thornton picking up 2 victories on the first day. Paul Carberry and Tom Scudamore also picked up a win a piece. Ruby Walsh and Tony McCoy yet to register a win, but with 3 days left it can change quickly.

My Cheltenham bets

2008-03-10T21:01:00.003Z

Always enjoyed Cheltenham without ever having been. Sad really, but I will go one day. In the mean time, I've opted for a bet that will give me plenty of action over the four days without the excessive outlay. I've gone for the 9 jockeys with the shortest odds outside of Ruby Walsh and Tony McCoy. Hopefully one of these fella's can put 3 or 4 winners together and make me a tidy profit. With a £18 liability coming from the £50 Betfair internet account (which is currently sitting at around £60), it's not going to put me in a real hole if I lose.

Bet 56: £100 LIVERPOOL to beat Newcastle @ 2/5

2008-03-08T12:18:00.003Z

Arrived back from Vegas (will write a report later, but no big win sadly) a little re-energised and willing to work on my main project again. Going with Liverpool with my first bet back, they look a lot better than the team from earlier in the season. Newcastle have not only historically struggled against the Reds, but are in very bad form. Going with Boyle Sports online for this on, will get a free bet which can be reused further down the line.

Running balance: £1,340.12

Post script: Another £40 in the pot thanks to an easy Liverpool win. Just £25 off my all time high, which was amazingly set way back in December. Got a free £100 bet to play with, just wondering now how to play it.

The heart's just not in it...........

2008-03-02T20:24:00.003Z

Don't know whether it's the fact that I had a relatively stressful February, in which I had to get myself out of a £170 hole, or the fact I'm off to Vegas on Monday, but I had no real desire to bet at all this weekend. Only three bets on the now rebalanced Betfair account, which resulted in a fairly decent return. Thanks to Ian Wilkerson, the Scottish writer from the Racing Post, who came up with the Stenhousemuir tip. He has really been on fire recently and I've noticed his tips do actually change markets (although it probably doesn't take much to move a Scottish Third Division game).

No posts then for the next week, but hopefully some good stories on my return. I may have a couple of $200 (£100) bets whilst I'm out there on some of the CL games, not sure. Bye for now

March plan

2008-03-01T12:13:00.004Z

- Take the best odds (so use of the internet will now become more regular)
- Hit a strike rate of 80%
- Minimum £20 return from each wager

As I'm on hols in a couple of days, this may be a bit stop start, but I'm happy that I start using the net a little more. Gotta make every penny count!!

February '08 monthly review

2008-02-29T19:48:00.004Z

Profit for the month: £89.68
Profit to date: £300.12

Target for the month: £8.64
Performance against target for the month: +£81.04

Target to date: £31.10
Performance against target to date: +£269.02

Average odds staked for the month: 2/5
Average odds staked at to date: 4/9

Bets placed in the month: 13
Bets placed to date: 55

Average win per bet in month: £5.62
Average win per bet to date: £5.16

Winning % for the month: 77%
Winning % to date: 76%

Average winning margin for the month: 1.4
Average winning margin to date: 1.3

Internet based return for the month: £16.58
Internet based return to date: £16.58

January / February '08 internet monthly review

2008-02-28T20:44:00.003Z

Party Bets:

P&L for the period: (£50.00)
P&L to date: (£50.00)

Detailed results and review for Party Bets can be found here.

Betfair:

P&L for the period: £66.58
P&L to date: £66.58

Although, the profit actually shows £91.73, you need to take off the £35.15 from main system Bet 55 and then also add the free £10 I received upon sign up, leaving me with a excess of £66.58.

Total:

P&L for the period: £16.58
P&L to date: £16.58

Ok, confession one: I did have £35 worth of bonus cash this month to assist with. Confession two: until Sunday evening I was actually up more than £150 on Betfair only to waste most of the built up profit "going crazy on the upside". I hate that term, but that exactly what I did. Still, I had fun and it was good to cut loose from the somewhat limited betting opportunities of the main system.

That's it for February.............

2008-02-27T20:11:00.002Z

Decided to call it a day for February, being very happy where I currently am standing. Have made a "profit" of £84.67 for the month, which is very pleasing, as it probably marks the highest point I have been all month.

Will try and right my P&L review for the month in the next couple of days. March will probably not start properly until maybe the 3rd Saturday of the month as I'm off to sunny(ish) Vegas on the 3rd for 4 nights.

Classic Tunes No 19: Matt Darey (feat. Marcella Woods) - Beautiful

2008-02-26T21:24:00.001Z

Betfair Internet Update - Jan/Feb '08

2008-02-24T17:18:00.005Z

A lot more encouraging situation here over £130 up and football is at the core to my winnings. Its been a mixture of my own choices and those suggested by the Racing Post. To the RP's credit, they have really come up with some superb tips, I'll list the best one's to date (with the odds I got):

St. Eteienne to beat Caen @ 12/5

Southend to beat Yeovil @ 47/25

Frankfurt to beat Werder Bremen @ 59/20

Brechin to beat Airdrie @ 3/1 (the Scottish writer Ian Wilkerson is very, very good. I always follow his tips)

Mansfield to beat Darlington @ 26/5 (Mark Langdon is also very good, this tip being his best to date)

Norwich to beat Cardiff @ 33/10

NB: I'm actually only up £95 here really as £35 of the winnings relate to the main system Bet 55.

Party Bets Internet Update - Jan/Feb '08

2008-02-24T16:48:00.004Z

Well, no progress to report here, and in fact I've lost all of my allocated £50 and the £25 bonus on top of that. As I've mentioned before, there's nothing really I've done differently here to Betfair (apart from back those losers AKA the English cricket team on a regular basis). Still, I'd rather lose my money on this site and win it on Betfair as I've noticed that Party Bets charge a £1.50 withdrawal charge, even to a debit card. Cheeky barstards!!

End of the February Recovery Plan

2008-02-24T16:26:00.002Z

As some of my regular readers will know, I adopted a recovery plan in order to try and get myself out of a £170 deficit I had got myself into following back to back defeats on the 10th February. I'm 6 games into this plan, and I've decided to now finish up for the month for the two following key reasons:

1: I've now recouped the £170 loss and am now showing a £73.10 surplus for the month, something which I am very happy about
2: There are no games that I really like the look of between now and March, there's no point trying to force things

For March, I'm going to try and put together a similar plan as I think I have been lacking a realistic target setting mechanism.

Bet 55: £100 LIVERPOOL to beat Middlesbrough @ 4/9

2008-02-23T09:03:00.004Z

Going back to BetFred for this one, where I think Liverpool are good value for this game at 4/9. I think the Reds know they have to start producing at home, otherwise 4th place is in real doubt. With Liverpool out of the FA Cup, Rafa should stick his best team out, whilst 'Boro not only struggle on their travels, but will have one eye on their midweek replay.

Running balance: £1,283.54

Post script: Sadly, due to family commitments, I couldn't get down to the bookies to place this bet so I had to do it through Betfair. Needless to say I shit it a little when it went 3-2 and traded out. As a result I only made £35.15, but even after the final whistle I feel I made the right decision.

Bet 54: £100 SWANSEA CITY to beat Luton Town @ 4/11

2008-02-21T20:54:00.005Z

Luton had a very bad away record before the problems of administration. Since then, they've lost a clutch of their better players and should be made to suffer against a Swnsea team who have shown consistency in the league even if they have suffered another reverse in a cup competition.

Back to my local William Hill for this one, hopefully they'll still recognise me after my bets at Coral and BetFred.

Running balance: £1,248.39

Post script: Swansea left this one late, but with Luton down to ten men, a goal was always on the cards here. In fact this was my second successive 1-0 win, but they all count!!

Bet 54: £100 DARLINGTON to beat Chester @ 1/2

2008-02-18T20:43:00.003Z

Getting this bet in early as I have to make quite a trip to get into town to get to Betfred (best odds available) and as I had to pick up my winnings from Saturday today, it made sense to place this one today. Chester were vying for automatic promotion perhaps only 4-6 weeks ago but have since gone into absolete free fall. They got trounched 6-2 by Dagenham, who themselves are struggling to pick up the points. Althought Darlington lost on Saturday, they are still a very strong team at home and I consider this to be good value at 1/2.

Running balance: £1,212.02

Post script: Match postponed

Recent developments and internet update

2008-02-18T19:58:00.002Z

I've decided that I can now put all my betting activity (aside for a couple of exceptions I'll list) through the blog via my internet betting. I had moved all my football and sports betting over this month (I used to do a few football coupons in the shops), but I can now also do any horse or greyhound racing as well. I think this will not only mean that I don't fritter any of my day to day money away, but I think I will think twice about putting a tenner on Trap 6 in the 1.44 at Hove if its going to hit my monthly profit or loss. The only exceptions to this are when I go to the casino (once or twice a year), when I go to Vegas (although I can do the sports side of things via the net) and the odd nugget or two in the pub fruit machine (and no, I don't play the Crack Machines in the bookies).

In terms of my internet play for the month, it's really a tale of two extremes. On Party Bets, I have the whooping balance of £4.10, a loss of £45.90 to date (I've managed to blow the £25 bonus on top of that as well!!) However on Betfair, I'm on £136.25, up £86.25 so far. It's really quite amazing as I've been placing various football and sports bets between the two, with little or no price discremination. Just seems to be everything that I touch via Party Bets turns to shite.............

The Commodores - Three Times A Lady

2008-02-17T20:18:00.001Z

How the fuck did that guy who did Lionel not win that BBC program The One and Only? He was so good you could have mistaken him for Richie in his prime

Bet 53: £100 OXFORD UTD to beat Droylsden @ 2/5

2008-02-16T09:08:00.006Z

Stick to what you know they say. Therefore I'm going back to my favourite whipping boys Droylsden, who in the two times I have bet against them have lost by an average of more than 5 goals.

First bet today at Betfred, who are offering stand out odds of 2/5 for this game. In Crawley I can only pick from them, Hills (there are 3 in the town), or Coral (about 10to choose from!!)

Running balance: £1,212.02

Post script: Not a complete battering, but a win none the less (1-0). Incredibly that £40 win has now put me back into profit for the month less than a week after losing £200 and being down £170. I guess it comes down to taking one game at a time (there are plenty on offer this time of the year, all week long) and trying not to force things.

Having said that, I still am going to continue with my February Recovery Plan and try and keep focused on the remaining 6 games, of which I'm budgeting 5 winners (strike rate now needed of 83%, which is still a real challenge).

Visited the Betfred shop at around 2.15pm to put on my wager and was shocked to see how few people there were in there (1, apart from me and the cashier). Usually around this time of the afternoon on a Saturday, you can't move for the amount of punters watching the racing. The Betfred shop is new and the first in Crawley, and by the looks of it, it might not be around for too much longer.

Classic Tunes No 18: Nalin and Kane - Beachball

2008-02-15T22:03:00.001Z

Bet 52: £100 STOKE CITY to beat Scunthorpe Utd @ 4/7

2008-02-15T19:40:00.004Z

Two teams at the opposite ends of the form ladder. Scunthorpe Utd are now bottom after struggling in recent weeks to find the net, whilst Stoke have moved into 3rd place and a win tonight will lift them into top spot.

3rd bet placed at Corals, lets hope it continues to be lucky for me.

Running balance: £1,172.02

Post script: I have to admit that I've wasn't that concerned when Scunthorpe went 2-0 up inside 25 minutes, Stoke have the fire power to trouble anyone in this league as their 4-2 at Wolves last week showed. Was a bit disappointed that there wasn't a goal before half time, but 3 Stoke goals in 14 minutes in the second half ironically saw me hanging on for the last 25 minutes!!

That's the first 3 of hopefully 10 bets in my February Recovery Plan, which I put into place following a disastrious back to back losing Sunday last week. So I now need 6 successful bets out of 7 remaining games. A strike rate of 85%, which is still a tall ask. I already have the games I want to bet on in the back of my head, but I'll keep them to myself for the time being.

Coral's has really come good for me, 3 winning bets out of 3, and I think I'll stick with this particualr shop (Tilgate, Crawley) as long as they can post odds that will at least match my local William Hill (Three Bridges, Crawley).

Bet 51: £100 HIBERNIAN to beat Gretna @ 4/9

2008-02-13T18:22:00.005Z

Bet 2 of hopefully 10 bets in the February Recovery Plan.

I know Hibs have had a bad run of form recently but they have got back to back credible draws and in the Cup game against Rangers could well have won. New boss Mixu Paatelainen will want to get his first win ASAP and couldn't have a better opportunity against a Gretna side who have just learned that owner Brooks Mileson is has been admitted to hospital.

Bet 51 marks the second bet of the blog away from William Hill, placed in the same Coral shop as Bet 39 which was also at 4/9. That resulted in a win, so I'm hoping for more of the same.

Running balance: £1,114.88

Post script: What should have been a routine win with Hibs 3-0 going into the last 10 minutes, got a bit close to the wire with 2 late Gretna goals. When I heard another goal alert I feared the worst, but Hibs has scored a 4th to put the game beyond doubt.

Bet 50: £100 BURTON ALBION to beat Droylsden @ 3/10

2008-02-12T18:06:00.001Z

Play-off hopefuls should outclass Droylsden in this Blue Square clash. Taking one game at a time, but I need a strike rate of 90% over the next two weeks. Really must start off with a win.

Running balance: £1,070.44

Post script: FRP gets off to the start it needed with a comfortable 3-0 win. Will probably back Oxford against Droylsden on Saturday, they are that poor. 9 games to go in 17 days is pretty hectic.

There is no doubt that the losses on Sunday were quite a shock, but I think success can often breed over confidence, and that's really what happened at the weekend. Hopefully I can learn from Sunday, although I will always have a degenerate nature to my selections, that's where I hope the internet £5 bets can hopefully take some of the slack.

February Recovery Plan (FRP)

2008-02-12T18:03:00.000Z

10 bets
Return of at least £30 per game
1 defeat allowed
No more than 1 game at the same time

Suicidal Sunday

2008-02-11T19:55:00.000Z

What else can I say? 90% of my profits to date disappear in a little over 7 hours. As well as the £200 lost on United and Chelsea, my internet account took a £40 hit on various Crawley Town related bets in the evening.

There's no doubt February will be a losing month now. For the time being I'm going to concentrate on Betfair and £5 wagers. I think another £100 loss will be too much to take.

Still, got to be positive. Every gambler has some good days and some bad days. If every punter kept winning, they'd be no bookies and no exchanges. I'm still up and I'm still above my target.

Right, I'm going to continue to cry now.............

Bet 49: £100 CHELSEA to beat Liverpool @ 5/6

2008-02-10T13:32:00.000Z

There are 5 big reasons why I've decided to take this one:

1 - Liverpool have historically been very poor at Stamford Bridge (one win since 1989).
2 - Liverpool's form has been pretty terrible coming into this game. If you exclude a 2nd half at home to Sunderland last week, they've struggled in every game this year.
3 - Liverpool have Torres out through injury. Normally I wouldn't attach any importance to one player being out, but Torres has been key in recent months and without him, they are lightweight up top.
4 - Liverpool are behind both Aston Villa and Everton, but the media's obsession about "the big 4" means that Liverpool are given respect that isn't really warranted. Do you think you would get 5/6 if Chelsea were playing Everton or Villa?
5 - Liverpool have fallen so far behind Arsenal, Utd and Chelsea, that the normal draw that Liverpool would have usually been happy with, isn't really enough. As a result I expect a bit more of an open game, which will suit Chelsea.

Running balance: £1,040.44

Post script: Liverpool are one of the most frustrating teams in the Premiership, and I wasn't let down again on Sunday afternoon. They dominated the first half and should have been in front but for some reason they backed off in the second half, happy with the point. I think that's why Liverpool are never going to win the Premier League anytime soon; they can't consistently win games against the other bigger clubs. Arsenal, United and Chelsea (under Jose anyway) will always go out looking to win every game, you can't say that with Liverpool. Their record against each of those teams is pretty terrible.

There is something about Lampard and his inability to work with midfielders of a similar style. It seems to be happening with Ballack, as it has been with Gerrard. But it would be wrong to single out one player, most of the team were bad. Ashley Cole was my MOM, but why does he have to show such awful indisclipline when a decision goes against him?

Bet 48: £100 MANCHESTER UTD to beat Manchester City @ 2/7

2008-02-10T13:30:00.000Z

Utd will not only want to honour the victims of the Munich disaster with a win, but will want revenge for August's shock defeat to City. There's also the fact that a win will put Utd back on top of the league and they've had 18 successive home victories coming into today's game.

Running balance: £1,140.44

Post script: What can I say. The first chapter of very forgetable day, and Manchester City win at Old Trafford for the first time in my life time (31 years and sadly counting). At 0-1, I was quite comfortable, but at 0-2 I knew it was all over. City are very strong defensively and United had very few attacking options on the bench. Hargreaves, Park, Carrick, some youth right back and a goalie. Are you telling me that a club the size of Manchester Utd have no strikers aside from Saha, Rooney and Tevez? Where the hell are all the youth stars of the future?

No problem, Chelsea will beat Liverpool and I'll be only slightly down on the day.............

Classic Tune No 17: Olive - You're Not Alone

2008-02-09T18:18:00.001Z

Bet 47: £100 EVERTON to beat Reading @ 1/2

2008-02-09T10:22:00.000Z

Reading are in free fall at the moment, having lost a crunch 6 pointer at Bolton last week at home. That has made it 6 defeats on the spin for Steve Coppell's side.

Everton have a great chance to go 4 points clear of Liverpool in the hunt of that illusive 4th Champions League place.

Running balance: £1,240.44

Post script: Watching the game on Soccer Saturday was nerve shattering. But, the Toffee's came good for me and have moved me now £30 into the black for the month

Bet 46: £100 RANGERS to beat Falkirk @ 1/5

2008-02-09T10:14:00.000Z

Of my shortlist, I've decided that I'd take a couple of games for the full £100, and the remaining I've permed into four folds on Party Bet. For some reason Darlington weren't available, so they've been dropped (they will definitly win now so get down on that one!!)

Rangers only lead Celtic by 4 points, and they know they have to keep winning (especially at home) if they have any chance of regaining their championship crown. Falkirk took a 7-2 battering here in August and are one of the only teams this season not to have taken anything from the Old Firm.

Running balance: £1,190.44

Post script: A fairly comfortable win here, Rangers posting unanswered goals either side of half time.

Classic Tunes No 16: System F - Out of the Blue

2008-02-08T21:30:00.001Z

Ideas for the weekend

2008-02-08T19:26:00.000Z

My (very) rough shortlist to date:

RANGERS to beat Falkirk @ 1/5
LUTON to beat Bournemouth @ Evens
BRADFORD to beat Bury @ 8/13
EVERTON to beat Reading @ 1/2
ASTON VILLA to beat Newcastle @ 8/11
WEST HAM to beat Birmingham @ 8/11
MIDDLESBORO to beat Fulham @ 5/6
DARLINGTON to beat Barnet @ 8/13

Party Bets Internet Update - Jan/Feb '08

2008-02-06T20:36:00.000Z

The first thing I want to note here is the poor betting history on the Party Bets website, I had to convert the file to Excel and then manually put the P&L totals in. They could learn a lot from the Betfair model.

Well, £9.85 in the red here, although the £25 sign up bonus sees me magically go £15.15 up!! I realise though that I'm only going to have one month with such fall back so I've got to make the most of it.

Very streaky results here as well, a long (mostly) losing streak followed by a similar winning pattern. Let's hope that continues.

Betfair Internet Update - Jan/Feb '08

2008-02-06T20:20:00.001Z

Along with the current P&L of £23.80, I also was given a £10 sign up bonus, making a total of £33.80 in the black for the month. As you can guess, I'm well up in the football, with the Superbowl disaster dragging me back down.

Betfair has really allowed me to enjoy my betting now, I can have a flutter on anything and not have to worry about losing a ton (I'm betting to a £5 stake, which I've kept to religiously). Their great mobile software has made it even easier to place a wager without delay. The only problem I have is that because I have another, dormant Betfair account, I can't transfer money to the Australian wallet. But luckily all my England related cricket bets will be processed through Party Bets without any problems.

Weekend review

2008-02-04T19:43:00.000Z

Well, where to start? Last night I watched probably one of the best ever Superbowls, and although my team (betting wise, I actually follow the New Orleans Saints) lost, I have to say I was actually not as gutted as I thought I'd be. Never mind that I'd just lost £125 (the £100 on Bet 45 and a further £25 on various internet related bets that centred around the Pat's dishing out a beating), in the New York Giants performance you saw what makes true champions. That 3rd down conversion where Manning (Eli, for the record) broke free of two tackles and managed to find a receiver who was under double coverage, was amazing, the guy caught the ball against his helmet!! The Giants deserved everything they got.

February has pretty much started like January, two victories and then a defeat. Although I felt much, much worse after the January defeat with Liverpool. I think it comes down to the fact that I dodged several very large bullets on Saturday (with me first dropping 4 ultimately losing bets, and then East Fife winning on the last kick of their game) and my luck had to run out eventually. So now I'm £40 in the hole for the month, but there is plenty of football left, and I'm not too worried.

Nothing football wise in the week though, international friendlies are a definite no-no, although I am semi-tempted by Stockport away to beat the hapless Bury. The one thing that does put me off here is that Bury have just brought in a new manager. You never know what's going to turn up when that happens. Sometimes they get an instant response (like Paul Ince at Macclesfield last year) and sometimes nothing happens (like Keegan at Newcastle!!). Best bide my time for next weekend.

In terms of my Internet play, I've pretty much lost my sign-up bonus's (£25 from Party Bets and £10 from Betfair) playing as many markets as possible. Got to knuckle down and try and make a proper go of it.

A final note, I've just noticed I've gone over the 1,000 site visits. Thanks to everyone who takes the time to see how I'm faring, if things get too boring just let me know and I'll try and add a few new features.

Classic Tunes No 15: Binary Finary - 1999

2008-02-03T20:00:00.001Z

Bet 45: £100 NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS to beat New York Giants @ 1/5

2008-02-03T19:24:00.000Z

A lot has been made of the fact that perhaps Tom Brady is semi-injured, and the Patriots have failed to cover the spread for the entire second half of the season, whilst the Giants have covered their spread in their games for the same period.

But the fact remains that the AFC this year is by far the strongest conference, and I'd actually say that both the Colts and the Chargers could easily crush anything the NFC has to offer, let alone the AFC championship winners, the Patriots.

I'll be playing some Patriot based side bets on the internet, but I fully expect the Pats to win by 2 touchdowns or more.

Running balance: £1,170.44

Post script: See weekend review posting above

What a result...................

2008-02-02T20:46:00.000Z

Late last night I was seriously considering placing 6 £100 bets. In the end I only placed 2. These are the full results of those 6 games:

Bets placed:
EAST FIFE 1 - 0 East Stirling
CRAWLEY 8 - 0 Droylsden

Bets not placed:
BARNET 0 - 1 Morecambe
ROCHDALE 0 - 2 Peterborough
Wrexham 2 - 0 DARLINGTON
Scunthorpe 1 - 0 CHARLTON

Quite unbelievable, but most satisfactory. In terms of future bets, I've GOT to concentrate on the games that will win, and leave the rest to the internet side of things.

Bet 44: £100 CRAWLEY TOWN to beat Droylsden @ 2/5

2008-02-02T09:20:00.000Z

Going for Crawley again in the FA Trophy, although Droylsden won last week, it doesn't tell the full story. They have just 2 points away from home and both wins in the FA Trophy this year have come when hosting.

Running balance: £1,270.44

Post script: 8-0. As comfortable as it gets. Done wonders for my average winning margin.

Bet 43: £100 EAST FIFE to beat East Stirling @ 1/5

2008-02-02T08:47:00.001Z

Probably the most obvious choice on the coupon, and the banker I thought would be most suitable to kick off the month.

I've decided not to go through with my idea of doing 6 bets this afternoon, just this one, and the Crawley game. FYI the other teams I was thinking of backing were: Charlton, Darlington, Barnet and Rochdale. I've backed them via my internet side of the project for a fiver a piece. I don't think I could handle the thought of losing £600 in one day.

Running balance: £1,230.44

Post script: You don't get a better result than a 1-0 win, with the goal coming with the last kick of the game, and that's exactly what happened here. Not obviously the comfortable start I would have wanted but a win is a win, and along with the Crawley game, I couldn't have asked for a better start to the month.

Classic Tunes No 14: CJ Bolland - The Prophet

2008-02-01T23:10:00.001Z

Come with me!!

6 of the best?

2008-02-01T22:48:00.000Z

Am considering starting the month with a 6 game salvo. That's £600 to lay out. Perhaps not............

Will review the RP AM and get back on what I decide. Probably best to be a bit cautious.

January '08 monthly review

2008-01-31T15:33:00.000Z

Profit for the month: £16.16
Profit to date: £210.44

Target for the month: £9.51
Performance against target for the month: +£6.65

Target to date: £22.16
Performance against target to date: +£188.28

Average odds staked at for the month: 3/7
Average odds staked at to date: 1/2

Bets placed in month: 15
Bets placed to date: 42

Average win per bet in month: £1.08
Average win per bet to date: £5.01

Winning % for the month: 73%
Winning % to date: 76%

Average winning margin for the month: 1.3
Average winning margin to date: 1.3

Internet based return for the month: To commence next month
Internet based return to date: To commence next month

Never got going this month and also struggled to get that perfect weekend where all my selections came in. As a result, I was always treading water and reviewing this all now, I'm just happy that I made a profit at all.

In terms of statisitcs, the most damming one for me was the paltry average win per bet of just £1.08. Hardly seems worth it at all really!! My winning average margin and my average odds remained very similar to what I had acheivevd last month.

Not really a month to look back on with pride, I did manage some very positive firsts: first away win selection, first win at odds against and my first bet (and win) away from William Hills.

Internet results for Sunday 27th

2008-01-28T20:24:00.000Z

Went 4 from 7 for the day, which returned a paltry £4 and change. Started off well when the overs came in in the Man Utd game. I then went onto lose three in a row, on the Sheffield Utd game (went for City, stupid balloons!!), the Bilbao game (unsurprisingly went for Barcelona) and then laid Tunisia when they went 1-0 up against South Africa. At this point I thought my £100 wouldn't last too long (well, £125, as I had the £25 bonus from Party Bets), and I could be in for a very short ride on this little side story.

Then got things back into the black when I backed Real Madrid, Michigan + 16.5 in College BB (wonderfully lost by 15 points with a four point swing in my favour coming in the last 4 seconds!!!) and finally Sporting Lisbon. Sporting were a touch under 2/1 so was quite chuffed with that one.

NASN (Sky Channel 417) is now showing a lot of live US sport, and, in particular, a lot of college BB, which I love. I'm no expert, but I have followed the sport since I spent a year in the States 10 years ago. The atmosphere these clashes bring is superb, with the students ensuring that most games are a sell out. I tend to just back the team that is given the points, not a great long term solution, but one that usually means I have an interest most of the game.

The internet revolution has arrived.........

2008-01-27T17:09:00.000Z

A very frustrating weekend for me really, just watching on the sidelines for what might have been (to be honest I'd have probably been looking at a loss as my main banker probably would have been Darlington, who only managed a draw). I've decided to shake things up a little as I'm just not getting enough action and the action I do get is for reasonably high stakes.

So, I'm going to pop £100 and divide it into two new internet accounts (I've choosen Betfair, for their better odds and their range of markets, and Party Bets, for their coverage of the US based sports and a good sign up bonus) and play around betting £5 a time. At the end of each month (I'll begin with the end of February to give myself a chance), I will replinish / withdraw to the £100 and the difference will go towards the overall P&L for that month. My main bets will continue to be placed in the shops

Classic Tunes No 13: Felix - Don't You Want Me

2008-01-25T20:40:00.001Z

Time for a time-out

2008-01-22T20:33:00.001Z

The win on the Patriots on Sunday night put me a whooping £16.16 up this month, and my first objective every month is to make a profit, which is what I've done. I've also met my interest based target of £9.50 which is my second objective. Sadly I've not met my third challenge which is to beat my previous best months performance, and this month I've fallen short by some margin. With only one weekend left this month, a defeat now would leave me in a hole that I probably won't be able to get out of. Therefore I'm going to have a break until February and come back with batteries fully charged.

Ultimately this month, 3 key defeats have cost me; Liverpool against Wigan, Arsenal against Birmingham and Newcastle against Bolton. Another month they could have all gone my way and I'd have been sitting on a profit of circa £450. That's the way the cookie crumbles, and I'm happy that despite those set backs and a further defeat with Motherwell against St. Mirren, I'm still showing a black figure for the month.

Bet 42: £100 NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS to beat San Diego Chargers @ 1/8

2008-01-20T11:30:00.000Z

Patriots didn't really have to break sweat beating the Jaguars last week, whilst the injury toll when the Chargers beat reining champs the Colts, is potentially terminal.

Running balance: £1,210.44

Post script: Tight to begin with, it was the Pat's defence who shined this week with Tom Brady having a decidedly average game. Four times the Chargers got into the Red Zone (only 20 yards to a touchdown and 7 points), four times they were stopped short and had to settle for a field goal and only 3 points. The Patriot's should cruise the Superbowl in a couple of weeks, the AFC is by far the stronger conference at the moment. Ironically it was the NFC teams of the Cowboys, the 49ers, the Redskins and the Giants that dominated when I first got into American Football in the 90's.

Saturday running balance and post script

2008-01-20T11:24:00.000Z

Running balance: £1,197.94

Post script: Went 2 from 2, and as the Spurs win was only 4/9, lost about £40 on the day. As a result I'm a whooping £3.66 up for the month, so I'll be in defensive mood for the remaining 11 days, as its vital to be that I stay in profit. Shame about the Newcastle result, a win there would have put me up nearly £200, and I could have cut lose a little. Highlights included getting both my first away win and my first odds against bet (Darlington produced for me again). Still, could have been worse I suppose, just got the be cautious for the rest of Jan.

Bet 41: £100 DARLINGTON to beat Mansfield @ 23/20

2008-01-19T09:00:00.000Z

Another away selection for me, this time I'm backing a red hot Darlington to compound Mansfield woeful league position with another away win (they've won 4 of the last 6 fixtures on the road). The fact that the home team have a massive 4th round FA Cup match next week when they host Middlesbrough, means that they may not actually be that focused on this league fixture.

Bet 40: £100 MOTHERWELL to beat St. Mirren @ 5/4

2008-01-19T08:53:00.000Z

My second ever away selection, and the highest odds I've ever taken, so you could say this is somewhat of a risk, especially when my first away selection fell by the wayside. Motherwell, despite the tragic loss of their captain Phil O'Donnell, have done well this season and have a strong away record. St. Mirren have recorded back to back away wins in recent weeks, but I feel that Motherwell will be a step up for the struggling team.

Bet 39: £100 TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR to beat Sunderland @ 4/9

2008-01-19T08:45:00.000Z

I'll be making this bet at Coral's, as Hills are only going 2/5 here so this makes this wager the first away from the shrine that is my local William Hills. Hopefully it'll be beginners luck for me!! Sunderland have lost their last 7 away from home and they have a very weak record against Spurs. I also think that following their hard fought win against Portsmouth on Sunday, the pressure to get something from the game will have diminished.

Bet 38: £100 NEWCASTLE UTD to beat Bolton Wanderers @ 4/5

2008-01-19T07:03:00.000Z

All aboard the Messiah bus!! There is an incredible buzz in Newcastle, and I'm going to admit I've fallen for it hook, line and sinker. The real difference, I think now, is that the fans are going to be 100% behind the team rather than 100% on their backs.

Bolton on the other hand are now without Anelka (although I do agree that he did have an almost Henry-like effect on his team, and they may actually be better off without him), have not won away all season and have lost their last 4 on the bounce away from the Reebok.

Betting in the blood book review 5: 24/7 Living it up and doubling down in the new Las Vegas by Andres Martinez

2008-01-19T06:22:00.000Z

This is the ultimate Las Vegas build up book, and although it's now getting on for ten years old, many of the themes and thoughts are still fresh. The book charts how Martinez performs when taking his $50,000 book advance money spending 30 nights in Sin City staying at 10 different hotels for 3 nights a piece. You live through the excitement of his pre-Vegas planning (including struggling to actually get the money out of his account) through to his 30 day conclusion and then two or three further visits.

Martinez covers the period (1998-99) where the Strip was in the midst of a massive boom, with several new hotels coming online in a short period of time (Mandalay Bay, Bellagio, Paris and Venetian) but he doesn't just stick to the "new Las Vegas", in his itinerary are the Riveria, the Golden Gate and the Sunset Station. He also takes the effort to go to church, and also to invite his wife and mother-in-law for part of the ride.

The chapters are nicely split up to cover each hotel's stay and at the end of each day there is a nest egg (the $50,000) current total update. Andres makes an effort to play all of the casino games, but ultimately there are favourites that he spends most of his time in (blackjack and baccarat mainly). One area which can be considered well out of the date is the coverage of the World Series of Poker, the game has moved on massively here, and most hotels now have huge Poker Rooms. Between all the casino action, there are also interviews and stories with a wide range of Vegas residents.

You have to give Martinez credit for sticking it out, for I can only take Sin City in very small doses (a week max) (although he does take a small break back to California half way through to get away from it all). The fact that he is continually staying in new hotels and seeing different places means that the book doesn't get too monotonous, and I think Martinez makes a good effort to make sure that he mixes it up a lot with his playing as well.

As you would expect there are times where he reaches unbelievable highs (he does very well at the Hard Rock for example) and desperate lows (twice at the Luxor there are substantial losing runs, including the a terrible chasing session with credit card cash advances), I guess what one could expect when visiting Vegas yourself.

In conclusion I would recommend this book for any would be Vegas visitor, there are some good lessons to be learnt with regards to money management etc, and it really does show Vegas in its true light.

My rating: 92%

Classic Tunes No 12: O.T. Quartet - Hold That Sucker Down

2008-01-18T19:11:00.001Z

Early thoughts for the weekend

2008-01-16T20:40:00.000Z

Thinking of following the same type of bets as last week, one / two bankers and then a further two / three other games around the 8/13 or 4/7 mark.

Games that could be of interest:
CARLISLE v Crewe (8/13)
EAST FIFE v Forfar (1/6)
NEWCASTLE v Bolton (4/5) - New manager syndrome
Wigan v EVERTON (11/10)
STEVENAGE v Droylsden (1/5)

These are just right off the top of my head, will look further into in the next couple of days.

A gambler's take on being (almost) flooded

2008-01-16T19:59:00.000Z

Took an hour and ten minutes to get home (I can walk it in just over half an hour) and when I saw the size of the river, coupled with the flood warning on the phone (meaning flooding is imminent) and the rain pouring, I just felt there was no way we were going to escape this one.

This was the river level at about 8:

We live up stream about 50 metre's and because the water was beginning to back up, I thought we were history. However the rain stopped and the water levels began to fall. Amazingly this was the same water level today (excuse my Paint editing):

Emotionally, the nearest I can compare last night to was if you had a monster bet on an odds on shot (very common for me) and they've gone 3-0 down (perhaps Swansea tonight!!). You feel sick to the stomach and nothing seems to make it go away. Amazingly, you get through it with the win / unflooded house. But there's no joy, no high fiving, just pure relief.

This one's for Betahlon - good luck to you sir!!

2008-01-16T19:57:00.001Z

Classic Tunes No 11: Delerium - Silence ft. Sarah McLachlan (Tiesto Mix)

2008-01-15T23:58:00.001Z

Bet 37: £100 LIVERPOOL to beat Luton Town @ 1/10

2008-01-15T21:08:00.000Z

River stable, still touch and go. Will be a long night I think

Running balance: £1,238.49

Post script: Well, the rain seems to have stopped and the river is going down. Have to say the last 4 or 5 hours have been pretty scary, and I fear the worst is still to come. Not a lot I can do though, it's in God's hands now.

Anyway, to the football. Liverpool won easily in the end 5-0 and I have added an Ayrton Senna to the funds as well as improving my average winning margin quite considerably. Obviously didn't watch any of the game, but I felt Luton's only chance was keeping it scoreless to at least the 70 minute mark, when Liverpool might have begun to panic. Not to be, and I think Luton players must have felt the game was up when they conceded with only 30 seconds to play in the first half.

Will give tomorrow a miss and start looking forward to the weekend (if my house isn't 3 foot under water that is..............).

FLOOOOD!!!!

2008-01-15T18:52:00.000Z

Very quick post to say I have backed Liverpool tonight, but I think I may be a bit pre-occupied as my house is in imminent danger of flooding!!!! I can hear the river in my bedroom window!!

Might just pass until Saturday

2008-01-14T20:40:00.000Z

Nothing really looks worthwhile, and the only game I have any real confidence is the Liverpool - Luton game, and at 1/10 it doesn't seem to be worth the hastle of dragging myself to the bookies. Cambridge's league game against Droylden has been cancelled and everything else I fancy will mean me backing odds on away teams.